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Our Fate Rests on Plates

Our Fate Rests on Plates

This is the Anthropocene era; the planet is now in a geological epoch where
humanity constitutes the largest force of change on Earth. Food which is the second
largest cause behind greenhouse gas emissions and the largest cause of land use
change, biodiversity loss, fresh water consumption and the largest contributor to the
global nitrogen, phosphorus and nutrient use — leading to eutrophication.


For the first time a report; EAT Lancet Commission 2025 translates the earth system
science into quantifications of the planetary boundaries for food and providing us
with a food system where we stay within the safe operating space. The defining
challenge is to achieve healthy sustainable diets that feed 9.5 billion people and that
does not destroy the environment. The earlier version of the report in 2019 had
generated a firestorm of criticism funded by the meat industry and the food
businesses. The media coverage changed the narrative on food for all times to
come.
Because, farmers grow crops by interpreting market signals (consumption) &
government policies incl. procurement (public distribution system in India) – which is
why dietary choices are absolutely critical.
A dysfunctional system is destroying the environment at the same time undermining
human health. Apart from around 11 million premature deaths per year, large
prevalence of cardiovascular and respiratory disease and many other health burdens
originate from the existing food systems; over twenty five percent of the world is
either undernourished or overweight.
The report defines a healthy reference diet within the planetary boundaries as
conceptualized the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Planetary health
diet (PHD) would prescribe an equitant of about four animal protein servings each
week; one serving of chicken, two servings of fish, one serving of dairy a day, about
one and a half eggs per week. A significant reduction in red meat to about 14 grams
a day that is one serving per week is probably the most controversial. This is many
times less than that consumed in USA & in Europe. It advises generous amounts of
legumes and nuts and keeping sugar relatively low. In my opinion, nations where
generally the diets are within planetary boundaries (like India) is only because,
people in these countries cannot afford more aspirational foods consuming of animal
protein like meat and poultry.
Over the past decade, the world focused on phasing out fossil fuels. India made
great strides towards renewable energy. But, the narrative of food as a contributor to
climate change is simply missing. Even if the world achieves “fossil fuel net
neutrality”, it will not stop climate change. Food is the missing key and Indian policies
on agricultural production and consumption remain counterproductive. In-fact Indian
government’s agricultural policies is the cause of most of the GHZ emissions from
Indian agricultural sector.

Only chance to reach the Paris climate agreement targets is transforming the food
system including adopting a dietary shift, cutting carbon emissions and food waste
by half. Additionally, adopting sustainable agricultural practices; reduce nitrogen and
phosphorus, nitrous oxide particularly from manure release, and also methane from
livestock. India is in breach of all these including the chemicalization of the food
systems.
The report explicitly recommends to stop expanding agriculture into natural
ecosystems and halt loss of biodiversity. Prescribes to radically improve productivity
of land and of water. Next follows the need to reorient agricultural priorities, having
spent 50 years investing massive amounts of research and development on
increasing yield levels on the monocultures, now is the time to spend the same time
and investment on the mixed integrated farming systems that align themselves with
a healthy diet. Essentially not to increase traditional cereal production and drastic
increase in vegetable growth in agricultural systems, fruits by 50 percent, fish will
have to increase, legumes to increase, nuts go up by 150 percent — these are major
shifts.
Challenge for universities and research institutes around the world is not only
merging ecological and conventional agriculture; sustainable intensification, but also
freely sharing the knowledge with those in the global south. More sustainability in
those regions that essentially are operating at the highest yield levels but having
problems with unsustainable production systems, compared to sustainable
intensification in regions that are today having the largest yield gap. Closing that gap
is a priority. India is focused on production gains through procurement incentives
rather than productivity gains through research and development. It is astounding to
see the lag in understanding of issues at the level of the policymakers.
“Justice” sits at the heart of report’s visualized Food Systems; this resonates with
farmers across the world. I interpret it as a recognition that farmers are not just
producers of food, but also need to make a dignified livelihood from their profession.
However, the question remains how to make farmers grow sustainably when “politics
of food & populism” in the current economic paradigm of “affordable-food for
consumers” do not allow farmgate prices to rise.
When Trump forces others nations to import subsidized USA grains; it will further
drive down farmgate prices in food importing nations like India. Subsequently, lower
farmgate prices will push farmers into more poverty leading to continuance of
unsustainable monoculture. Global problems like climate change cannot be
addressed within political boundaries and the world needs to reimagine agriculture
produce; specifically, at the WTO and how it is priced on the consumer’s table.